A probabilistic framework for risk management and emergency decision-making of marine oil spill accidents
نویسندگان
چکیده
Offshore oil spills may pose a severe threat to marine ecological environment. In this paper, new methodology based on Bayesian network (BN) and Influence Diagram (ID) is developed for risk management emergency decision-making of spill accidents. The integrates before accident response after accident, which can balance cost, render an optimal decision-making. Marine scenarios including root causations, intermediate consequent events are identified modeled using BN considering the dependencies multi-state incident process nodes. probabilities offshore resulting disasters estimated. prevention mitigation measures incidents added developing ID model, in cost utility implementing each safety measure considered. model estimate all strategies, strategy determined by balancing utility. A case study due subsea pipeline leak used illustrate methodology. It observed that efficiently support gas sector
منابع مشابه
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Chemical Engineering Research & Design
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['1744-3563', '0263-8762']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psep.2022.04.048